By: hobi50 on Mercoledì 11 Dicembre 2013 13:12
Sul Ft di oggi c'è un bell'articolo intitolato "bolle secolari e bastardizzazione di Keynes" di
cui è coautore David Roche che ,almeno una quindicina di anni fa, seguivo con grande
interesse.
Questo ne è un estratto.
"Credit bubbles, the authors believe, caused western economies to run dangerously above
their potential in the decades leading up to the current crisis creating an impossible
stock of “goodies”, which could not be shifted or consumed by western economies without
crashing the underlying markets.
Think of it as too much too soon.
Or better still, too much of the wrong stuff too soon, and too little of the right stuff
too late.
The result: the creation of faux capital which has never been unwound.
With this in mind, the authors suggest that interest rates need to account less for
population growth and contraction and more for productivity rates that factor in
technological disruption.
As productivity per capita rises, so does the economy’s potential.
Policy should consequently not attempt to direct capital to pointless endeavours that
produce goods, services and assets that the economy has no capacity to consume and is
not prepared to fight over. That sort of action only leads to an overhang of capital that
later disrupts the system.
Another point they make is that classifying the current malaise as secular stagnation is
actually a bastardisation of Keynes’ stagnation theory. Keynes’ stagnation theory, they
note, envisaged the death and euthanization of the rentier.
What we’ve got now, however, is a system which is doing everything it can — notably, by
blowing bubbles — to protect the rentier’s faux capital rents.
This runs contrary, of course, to Keynes’ stagnated world where investment and growth
depend solely on the ‘marginal efficiency of capital’ i.e. the risk-reward on new
investment.
C'è un tema che mi è particolarmente caro.
"The result: the creation of faux capital which has never been unwound."
o in altri termini :
Keynes’ stagnation theory, they note, envisaged the death and euthanization of the rentier.
What we’ve got now, however, is a system which is doing everything it can — notably, by
blowing bubbles — to protect the rentier’s faux capital rents.
Il QE non ha consentito la distruzione del falso capitale e/o la morte e l'eutanasia
del rentier ma ha favorito la loro sopravvivenza.
Oppure ,se vi piacciono le espressioni forti, l'economia è,sempre grazie al QE,divenuta
terra di zombies.
Hobi