SEGNALI DALLA LIQUIDITA' - Gzibordi
¶
By: GZ on Mercoledì 31 Ottobre 2001 16:05
dato che non è un analisi mia e che non sono convinto al 100% di questo approccio, lo pubblico qui
in sostanza è il solito TrimTabs che da segnali di medio periodo (diciamo 3-4 settimane non 2-3 giorni) calcolando qual'è la liquidità che esce e entra in borsa a NY
lo noto oggi perchè continua a dare segnali di diminuzione della liquidità effettivamente disponibile per la borsa
UN CONTO E' LA LIQUIDITA' IN GENERALE E UN CONTO E' QUELLA IN BORSA
non sposo al 100% questa analisi altrimenti sarei orso, ma so che è molto seguita e quando diventa molto netta ne tengo conto
-----------------------
LIQUIDITY UPDATE - Tuesday, October 30, 2001
On Monday, liquidity was negative $2.6 billion.
Cash at US equity funds at the end of September was down by 36%, or $77 billion, to $135.6 billion from the record high $212.8 billion at the end of October, 2000. That $77 billion decline occurred over the same time frame that equity funds had a net inflow of $72.5 billion.
The TrimTabs market cap index has lost $4 trillion, or 23%, over that same time frame.
In other words, despite equity funds investing a net of $150 billion ($77 billion shrink in cash + $72.5 billion inflow) between October 2000 and September 2001 the stock market still plunged. Why?
Up until September 11, $90 billion left the stock market as a result of an increase in the net trading float of shares, also called Corporate Liquidity.
Even more bearish, in October net new cash takeovers was about $1 billion -- the smallest one month since we started tracking in 1996.
Historically, the best leading indicator for stock prices is corporate liquidity. When companies start buying other companies for cash, that will signal a turn in both the overall economy and the US stock market.
---------------------------------------