Intel riassume tutto - gz
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By: GZ on Venerdì 06 Settembre 2002 11:41
Ho fatto rifare tre pc e ne ho comprato uno e ho usato solo degli Athlon1600 della AMD e non i pentium di Intel.
La gente con cui ho parlato concorda che al momento gli AMD costano leggermente meno e fino a quando Intel non esce con la nuova versione equivalgono i suoi pentium.
Ma AMD ha un grafico persino peggiore di Intel per quello che vedo. Per cui non è nemmeno una questione di nuove società che tolgono quota di mercato alle vecchie come Intel.
Ad ogni modo qui sotto c'è l'analisi della conference call di Intel su realmoneypro.com.
Il problema non è nei numeri che sono annunciati in termini di stime che deludono, perchè ormai tutti hanno tagliato le stime di Intel all'osso, ma nel fatto che alla fine di tutte le chiacchere ^Intel#^ dovrebbe guadagnare 54 centesimi per azione.
Al momento costa 15.2 $. Quindi costa sui 28 volte gli utili.
Ma nel 2001 ha guadagnato 19 centesimi per azione.
E invece nel 2000 aveva guadagnato 1.52 centesimi per azione. Non sono errori di stampa qui.
Nel 1999 aveva fatto 1.05 $ per azione.
O se volete , ragionando sul totale nel 1997-1998-1999 (quindi escludendo il 2000 anno boom) aveva fatto un utile netto di 7 miliardi in media.
E nel 2001 ha guadagnato solo 1.3 miliardi !!!!!
Dovrebbe tornare a guadagnare 5 o 6 miliardi se la domanda ritorna. Il motivo per cui tanta gente testardamente si è fatta massacrare su Intel o STM o Infineon o Chartered o Texas è che tutti hanno in mente i 10 miliardi di utile del 2000 o anche solo i 7 miliardi di utile del 1998 (!!) e non capiscono come sia possibile che ora Intel guadagni solo 1.2 miliardi
-------------------Somaney is a partner and fund manager with TSG Capital Partners, a hedge fund based in Beverly Hills, Calif., and Plano, Texas. -------------------------------------------
Call just began. Andy Bryant, CFO is not on the call, as he is on vacation. The company says that revenues will be in the $6.3 billion to $6.7 billion. Let's call that $6.5 billion. Gross margins are expected to be in the 51% range, give or take a point or two. Expenses will be $2.1 billion and the company will take a loss of $25 million on investments et al, D&A remains unchanged at $1.2 billion. Gross margin will stay at 51% for the rest of the year. CAPEX for the year will be approximately $5.1 billion. Tax rate will be 28.4% for the year. Company says that the year is tracking as per expectations. (Yeah right. Then why lower the range, tough guy?) Q&A begins.
Short INTC.
Call Preview
09/05/02 04:31 PM EDT
Intel just announced that revenues for the third quarter will be slightly below earlier expectations in the range of $6.3 billion to $6.7 billion, lowering the high end of the range by $200 million. Microprocessor unit sales are lower than expectations and the flash business is in line with expectations. Demand for communications products remains weak.
Stock is up in the aftermarket, up forty cents per share as investors are more than likely relieved that the guide down was not greater. Call will begin in approximately 65 minutes. Stay tuned.
Q: Last quarter you sold a larger than expected number of low-priced Celerons, is this the same this quarter as well?
A: We stated that we gained some market share in the low end and that trend continues and we continue to make gains in low-end processors.
(Stock is now up sixty cents in after-market activity as investors are hearing good things, which I am afraid I am not. At least as yet I am not.)
Q: In the current quarter, is September traditionally a strong month?
A: We are not counting on September being unduly changed from previous Septembers. What we have seen a week into the month, we have seen very good distributor sales so far. That gives us confidence about the guidance we just gave you earlier. It is at the low end of the seaonal range that we have seen in prior quarters. .
Q: Is there any seasonality associated with Q4?
A: We cannot discuss seasonality issues at the moment. We will discuss when we realize earnings.
Q: Are gross margins at 51% plus or minus 100-200 bips more closer to less or more?
A: We are just going to say that we will keep the range.
Q: Can you comment on the manufacturing efficiencies?
A: We have very aggressive cost controls that are now beginning to take effect.
Q: How is pricing holding up in the chip sector?
A: Continues to be aggressive. (Again read, they continue to see pricing pressure).
Q: Can you provide more color on the communications business?
A: Kind of flattish on a lower level. (Read as still declining folks.) .
They closed the call fairly quickly. I missed the last couple of questions while writing my response to Doug K's question over on Traders Talk, but my thoughts are that after a possible short covering/relief rally INTC will head lower. Management went out of their way to assure investors that this was not a preannouncement, but just an update. (Oh yeah, an update that led to lowering revenue expectations? Sounds like a preannouncement to me, mate.) Over and out from Big D, where I have to take an online defensive driving course tonight.
Edited by - gz on 9/6/2002 9:51:31