| - 03 Maggio 2010 02:23
- Se per sistemare la Grecia ristrutturassero il suo debito chiedendo ai creditori di condonare un 20% ad esempio, di colpo il fattore di rischio su Spagna, Portogallo, Italia aumenterebbe e i BTP passerebbero al 4.5% o forse al 5%. Dato però che la durata media del debito è di 7 anni (altri paesi sono a 4 anni) questo porta il costo medio dei nostri 1.8 miliardi di euro di debito vicino al 4.5%, 4.5% X 1.800 miliardi = 70 miliardi circa di interessi annui. Calcola che lo stato incassa sui 470 miliardi di tasse
Adesso paghiamo sui 58 miliardi l'anno nel 2010 di interessi sul debito pubblico. Calcola che 50-60 miliardi è anche il deficit che fa aumentare il debito totale, IL NOSTRO DEFICIT PUBBLICO ANNUO è DOVUTO SOLO AD INTERESSI se vogliamo. Se il PIL rimane fermo perchè non c'è inflazione e neanche crescita reale nel 2010, il debito aumenta di 50-60 miliardi di euro e il PIL nemmeno di 1 miliardo e questo ci strangola, ma già così gli interessi ci strangolano
Ma a livello di Europa intanto questo significa anche che è logico che cerchino di EVITARE A TUTTI I COSTI CHE IL DEBITO GRECO VENGA RISTRUTTURATO (cioè CONDONATO in parte, IN REALTA), a causa degli effetti a catena
Perchè poi avresti che il mercato riprezzerebbe il rischio di tutti i paesi indebitati parecchio come noi e chiederebbe uno 0.5% in più sul gigantesco debito italiano che paga già IN MEDIA vicino al 4%. Se poi i mercati si innervosissero veramente su Portogallo e Grecia che chiedono ai creditori di condonare ad esempio 80 miliardi, di colpo chiederebbero magari al BTP di pagare un 5% o 5.5% e il costo medio del nostro debito sale al 5%. Questo adesso, con i tassi a un mese schiacciati dalla BCE all'1% e inflazione appena sopra l'1%.
Da questo si capisce che UE e FMI devono fare in modo che i creditori del debito greco vengano pagati interamente. Solo che alla fine l'usura consuma troppe risorse, cioè sarebbe più semplice con livelli di debito da tempo di guerra adottare la soluzione che tutti gli stati usano in tempo di guerra e stampare moneta e poi prestarsela da soli a se stessi, cioè invece di pagare un 5% sui 500 miliardi di debito italiano che hanno gli stranieri
In fondo gli inglesi e gli americani al momento stanno facendo questo: alle aste si presenta la loro banca centrale che stampa moneta e compra lei il debito da rifinanziare ! Lo stanno facendo gli inglesi ora al 100% sui Gilt, in questo modo evitano di pagare di più
Noi non possiamo in realtà perchè la UE ci vincola, ma se avessimo la lira la soluzione sarebbe ora che non ci sono pericoli di inflazione stampare moneta e comprare tutte le emissioni di Btp prossime schiacciando i rendimenti come fanno inglesi ed americani
|
| - 03 Maggio 2010 02:18
- argomento: Bonds e Tassi di Interesse
- Intervistano qui sul wsj.com oggi Maria Cannata la direttrice del Tesoro a Roma responsabile di gestire il debito italiano sui mercati e metterlo in asta (in dollari siamo a 2.300 miliardi al momento)
La tecnica dell'Italia è stata di allungare il debito per cui siamo ora a 7 anni di durata media, mentre nei primi anni '80 era solo 1 anno e questo ha il vantaggio che mandiamo meno bonds in asta di altri che hanno durate brevi
Dato che i Bot pagano un 1.2% e i Btp a 10 anni sono sul 4% però questo implica che paghiamo sul 3.7% e il ribasso dei tassi a breve non ci ha aiutato molto. Pensa ora che l'America paga sui titoli a 10 anni, Treasury Bond, sul 3.7% e solo dieci giorni fa sfioravano il 4%. Inoltre la prevalenza di Btp a 5, 7 e 10 anni richiede più investitori esteri, il pubblico italiano non compra molti Btp. Ok, l'articolo qui sotto è rassicurante, ma solo perchè non mostra i numeri assoluti (vedi qui invece)
.....But Italy—whose total public debt of €1.7 trillion ($2.3 trillion) amounts to seven times that of Greece and an equal share of gross domestic product as Greece's—has so far avoided the storm.
Despite a tremor last week when demand for a bond seemed unusually weak, this year should be "smooth sailing" and next year mostly similar as new issues are sequenced to track redemptions, she says. Yields on Italian government bonds are lower than a year ago all along the maturity spectrum. Italy, rated single-A, offers yields that are a bit lower than Spain's, especially at shorter maturities, despite the fact that Spain has an AA rating, even after Standard & Poor's downgrade April 28.
Part of Italy's resilience lies in low private-sector debt levels as well as Finance Minister Giulio Tremonti's refusal to embark on any fiscal stimulus despite the worst recession since World War II.
But it also reflects some technical strategies developed by Ms. Cannata, who lines her office with bond certificates from Italy's past, ranging from a 500-lire issue to fund train tracks in 1880 to documentation for a recent bond worth 3 trillion in Japanese yen. Given fears that some southern European countries may have too much public debt, her sales pitch to the markets is unflashy: Italy sells its bonds according to an obstinately regular schedule to emphasize transparency and predictability. Some other countries, by contrast, sometimes sell issues privately with no announcement at all.
That is helped by MTS, the Italian bond-trading platform that traders hail for the quality of its real-time (and binding) price quotes.
That platform, launched in 1988 and regularly modernized since, means thinner margins for primary dealer banks that make markets for Italian bonds. But Ms. Cannata cajoled them to comply by offering those that do the best—using the Treasury's sophisticated method in monitoring their performance—special consideration when assigning syndicated deals that involve specialist fees.
The mix of a highly efficient trading infrastructure and the large amount of Italian debt means the Italian bond market doesn't suffer from liquidity problems, which boosts their appeal in times of turmoil. "For better or worse, you can always get a price on Italian bonds," she said.
Ms. Cannata acknowledged she was also making virtue out of necessity with her rigid timetable of debt issuance, given the public debt load is almost 120% of GDP.
"The size of our debt means we can't afford to be opportunistic," she said. An example arose on April 27, when demand at an auction for €9.5 billion in six-month debt was surprisingly weak. The cover ratio, the amount of demand versus the supply, was 1.03, down a worrying 50% from a similar auction in March.
Ms. Cannata said primary dealers warned her the size of the issue was simply too large for the market to swallow at a time of uncertainty. But she stuck to her guns, saying it would have been worse to signal alarm.
Strong demand at auctions two days later vindicated her, and Italy looks set to "continue benefiting" from its better economic, fiscal and rating outlook compared with its peripheral euro-zone peers, said Chiara Cremonesi, a fixed-interest strategist at UniCredit in Milan.
Ms. Cannata said only an "extraordinary event" would push her to alter her published plans.
Her strategy has a downside. She has pushed the average maturity of Italy's government bonds to 7.1 years from 5.0 in 1998, when Italy qualified to join the single-currency union. Longer maturities carry higher yields, meaning Italy's public accounts didn't benefit as much as they could from the lower interest rates ushered in by the euro.
That average maturity compares with only 4.6 years for the U.S.—which intends to raise that figure to 6 in short order—and with 5.8 years for Germany, where short-term interest rates are particularly low because of the country's status as a safe haven.
But that schedule means Ms. Cannata doesn't have to refinance as often as other governments, which means Italy is spared the nerve-wracking experience of having constantly to roll over all of its debt. Back in 1980, when she joined the Treasury, the average maturity for Italian bonds was just one year.
Indeed, Italy actually cut its gross issuance of bonds in the first quarter, while Germany raised its by €27 billion and France by €21 billion, according to UniCredit.
Italy's tight fiscal policy last year has also allowed Ms. Cannata to put "hay in the barn," which can help her cope with any potential fiscal bond-market freeze. The Treasury will have at least €25 billion in a cash account this year, almost three times the usual target level.
That money, Ms. Cannata said, means Italy can instantly fund its share of a Greek rescue package without issuing new debt, and has also allowed it to skip any issuance at all so far this year of three-month Treasury bills or commercial paper.
During the crisis many rich countries rushed to short-term debt markets to fund their responses to the global economic crisis: propping up banks and fund fiscal stimulus plans. That money has to be rolled over constantly—a big risk if market interest rates rise from their current record lows—or moved into longer maturities.
As it happens, that's what Italy has already done. At the end of March, Italy has €151 billion in Buoni Ordinari del Tesoro—bonds with maturities of 12 months or less—outstanding, or 10% of total tradable public debt, down from 12% a year earlier. That compares to €206 billion of short-term French T-bills now in circulation, which is 18% of all French government bonds.
Investors shouldn't expect Italy to be next in the rating agencies' firing line, Ms. Cannata says.
|
Feed RSS
